Drinking the Orange Kool-Aid

In my last post, I put some stats out there that weren't exactly favorable toward our Birds.  This one will be different.  Call it favoritism, call it "drinking the orange kool-aid", call it whatever you want, but I'm doing it in this post.  Here are the top five reasons the Orioles are in first place in the division TO STAY for the rest of the year:

Delmon Young is one of the many Orioles' bench players
coming up big in key situations.

1.  In 42 games against the AL East the Orioles are 25-17. The Blue Jays are the only other AL East team above .500 in that category at 18-15. The O's are also 8-2 in their last 10 games, 9-3 in extra-inning games, and 17-13 in one-run games. Do these stats sound familiar? Sort of like 2012, the last time the O's made the postseason? 
2. O's pinch-hitters are batting .361 on the year. I know this may not seem THAT important, but bear with me. What this proves to me is two things. One, is that Buck Showalter really knows how to put his players in the right situations at bat. How many times have you questioned a move, only to find yourself cheering because someone came up with a clutch hit? The Chris Davis walk-off pinch-hit? Delmon Young's .467 average as a pinch hitter? The second thing this means is that the bench is a deep one. There isn't a man on this bench that can't contribute and it shows. 
3.  I've said this already, but the O's are showing themselves to be possibly the only legitimate contender in the division. Toronto, who might be their only threat, is 2-6 in their last 8 games, and are proving that the bats aren't enough to keep them afloat with such inconsistent pitching. The Tanaka-less Yankees are just an average team, as they once again have dropped to the .500 mark. The O's on the other hand have won 8 of their last 10 games as mentioned earlier, including 3 extra-innings thrillers.
4. Despite their early struggles, O's starters are 34-28 with a 4.14 ERA. The bullpen is an impressive 16-13 with a 3.44 ERA. O's pitchers have adopted a "bend but not break" mentality as well, holding opposing batters to a .225 batting avg with runners in scoring position, just .181 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, and only .188 with the bases loaded. Oh, and Baltimore's 44 errors on defense is the best in the AL... again.



Zach Britton is pitching at an All-Star level since moving to the
bullpen with a 1.31 ERA

5. I would be a fool not to mention the offense. It is undoubtedly the heart and soul of the team, and will be the main reason they succeed if they are to go far this season. With an everyday lineup consisting of Markakis, Pearce, Jones, Cruz, Davis, Hardy, Machado, Schoop, and Joseph/Hundley, the O's are tough outs 1-9. Cruz is an MVP candidate, Jones and Markakis are hot as usual, and Pearce has surprised everyone with his bat, earning himself a spot on the lineup everyday. The Orioles' 113 HR's and 852 hits, are the second best in the MLB. 

No Better Time Than Now!

The iron just heated up a notch, and the time has never been better for the Orioles to strike. Yankees' rookie phenom Masahiro Tanaka will be out a minimum of 6 weeks with a partially torn elbow ligament in his throwing arm. Tanaka is 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA this season. All other Yankees starters are combined 22-25 with a 4.56 ERA, hardly comparable numbers. Now with 4 of their original 5 starting pitchers on the DL, the Yankees will have a tough time staying relevant in the AL East, and are likely to join the Red Sox and Rays toward the bottom of the division.

Tanaka will opt not to have Tommy John surgery for now. Having
surgery would keep him out until the 2016 season. Credit: USA Today

The Blue Jays have suffered quite a bit from the injury bug as well, including the latest addition to the DL: their hottest hitter through this half of the season, Edwin Encarnacion. The Jays' slugger was placed on the 15-Day DL with a quadriceps strain, and without him in their lineup the Jays' offense becomes very lackluster. 

Showalter's Orioles host the Yankees for three games after taking
two of three from local rival Washington.

Which leads us to the Orioles, and the perfect note to build upon my last post. THE IRON HAS NEVER BEEN HOTTER, and it's time for the O's to strike. With the win against the Nationals, the Yankees losing yet again, and the Jays being off, the Birds have opened up a 3 game lead in the AL East. The Yankees come limping into Camden Yards for the first time this season beginning a 3-game series heading into the break. If the Orioles can take care of business and kick the Yankees while they are down, they could potentially take a 4-5 games lead into the All-Star break. Think about THAT O's fans! 

One thing that must change is the O's record against winning teams. The O's have feasted upon the weak AL teams this year, going 30-19 against AL teams under .500. On the other hand, Baltimore is 14-18 against AL teams above .500, including a pitiful 2-7 against the other two AL division leaders, Detroit and Oakland. Point is the O's can certainly make a playoff run playing the way they are, but if they do not start beating good teams consistently, it may be a quit exit from the postseason. For now, bring on the Yankees.

O's in First, What's in Second, I Don't Know's in Third...

After tonight's loss to the Nats, the Orioles are still in first place, 2.5 games ahead of the second place Blue Jays, and 3.5 games ahead of the third place Yankees. So what does all this mean right now?

Machado: .269, 9 HR, 20 RBI in 58 games this season
(Credit: Associated Press)

It means they are in an excellent spot heading into the second half of the year. That being said, the Orioles are very fortunate to be where they are considering the circumstances.  Any team that makes a legitimate World Series run needs two things throughout the year: talent and luck.  The Orioles have been very fortunate to be playing in a mediocre/slightly poor AL East this season, with the Red Sox and Rays buried in the cellar. Also, their premier star from last season, Chris Davis, is batting just .205, and Manny Machado (who has been impressive as of late) has missed many games due to recovering from surgery and a 5-game suspension. On top of these struggles, the slowly improving starting pitching has been less than average at best this season, and has relied on the bullpen far too much. And OH YEAH, Matt Wieters... he's done for the year. 

If anyone had put these circumstances in front of you in March, you'd say no way they are 2.5 games ahead of the division in July.  But again, it hasn't been all bad. In fact its been mostly good. Jones and Markakis are performing at or above expectations to this point, and Nelson Cruz is having possibly the best year of his career, earning his $8 million salary two fold. Hardy, Machado, and even Schoop have proven that not much is going to get by that infield, Steve Pearce has been the missing piece at the 2 spot in the order this year, and the combination of Joseph and Hundley behind the plate has been serviceable in the absence of Wieters.

Cruz leads MLB with 28 HR and 73 RBI this season
(Credit: Baltimore Sun)

So, what should we expect the rest of the way? Much of the same really. This team isn't winning with smoke and mirrors. They are incredibly talented and many of the veterans seem to really understand the situation they are in.  They will need more contributions from the struggling stars like Davis, Tillman, Jimenez, and upcoming stars like Gausman and if possible, Bundy.  The starting rotation needs the most help, and the free agent market doesn't seem to be the place to find the pieces the O's will need to make a run at this thing. Eventually Cruz and Pearce will come back down to earth at least a little, and it will take the Chris Davis of 2013 to help fill the void.

Until then lets enjoy the ride. At the beginning of this season I predicted that nobody was going to run away with this division in the East, and I thought each team had a legitimate shot at contending for a title. Turns out that this thing may only be a 3-team race... only time will tell. That being said, the opportunity has never been better for the O's to strike and take hold of this surprisingly weak AL East division.